Everyone, including this year’s presidential candidates, agrees that America needs to wean itself off foreign oil. No one agrees, however, just how to do it.
When it comes to cars, hybrids, electric plug-ins and natural-gas cars all are seen as steps in the right direction. And much has been made in the media about the potential for diesel-powered cars, already popular in Europe. But are they right for American drivers?
Nobody knows for sure, but we’ll find out soon enough. A fresh new group of clean diesel-powered cars will arrive in dealer showrooms as early as this fall.
BMW is already gearing up to launch its clean-diesel-powered versions of the 335d sedan series and X5 SUV later this fall. The 335d and X5 will make their North American debut at the Los Angeles Auto Show in November and probably will go on sale sometime thereafter. In January 2009, the diesel-powered Audi Q7 luxury SUV also will go on sale.
And there is much more in the pipeline. Between now and 2011, Acura, Nissan, Hyundai and Kia all plan to launch clean-diesel cars of their own.
“This is the perfect storm for clean diesel-powered cars,” says Allen Schaeffer, executive director of Diesel Technology Forum, an advocate for diesel technology. “Diesel engines are a proven technology that never took off. We are now in a climate where people are focused on energy, and diesel is energy-efficient. This is the perfect time to bring out diesel.”
Diesel’s Departure–And Return
Diesel isn’t new. The technology has existed since the dawn of the automobile and remains widely popular in Europe. Auto experts say 50% to 60% of all vehicles sold in Europe are powered with a diesel engine.
Americans also drove diesel cars until 30 years ago, when air pollution concerns mounted. The smelly, smoky diesel cars on the road then were partly to blame for city smog. Most of what remains of diesel engines in America since then are those used to power buses and big commercial trucks. A turning point came in 2006, however, when the Environmental Protection Agency required the introduction of ultra-low-sulfur diesel, meaning the major polluting component of diesel fuel was removed.Now auto experts believe that diesel-powered cars, which can get 25% to 40% better mileage than gasoline-powered cars, may appeal to American drivers.
Right for Everyone?
Before even considering making the switch to a diesel, a car buyer needs to think about the type of driving he or she does. The new clean-diesel vehicles on their way to the American market probably will get better mileage on the highway than hybrids, which do better in stop-and-go city traffic (the battery recharges when the car is idle).
Unfortunately, other details on the clean diesel-powered cars in the pipeline are scarce. Typically, automakers don’t release pricing and other information until closer to the time when the vehicle actually becomes available to the public. Porsche (other-otc: PSEPF.PK - news - people ) has yet to make an official announcement that it is considering bringing a diesel-powered Cayenne to the U.S. next spring, with a Porsche spokesman saying only, “We have not ruled it out.”
Similarly, an Acura spokesman said the company will introduce a diesel in 2009 with an engine called i-DTEC, but would not confirm which model of car will get the upgrade.
Some diesels have already arrived in the U.S. as 2009 models, however. The 2009 VW Jetta sedan and sport wagon went on sale this spring, and this month the 2009 Mercedes-Benz trio of crossover SUVs (GL320, ML320 and R320 Bluetec) will go on sale. All the cars meet emissions standards in all 50 states.
Promise of Popularity
“We expect diesel in the U.S. to increase from 3.2% of the market in 2007 to 3.6% this year and reach 10% market share by 2015,” says Mike Omotoso, senior manager of powertrain forecasting at auto industry analyst J.D. Power and Associates.
“Despite all of the publicity surrounding hybrid vehicles, diesels have outsold hybrids in the U.S. by a large margin,” says Omotoso, as hybrids, popular as they are, still make up only a small part of the total auto market. “We expect that to continue as the European manufacturers introduce more diesels in the U.S. market.”
The advantage to consumers is that, while the diesel models will cost $500 to $2,000 more, much or all of that additional cost can be offset by a federal tax credit of up to $1,300 that is available on certain diesel vehicles. The credit applies to vehicles purchased before the end of 2010.
The rest can come in savings on fuel. While diesel currently averages $3.96 nationwide (regular gas is $3.40), highway drivers gaining extra mileage on diesel can rack up savings quickly. A drop in the price of diesel could fuel the cars’ popularity even more.
The future success is still a question mark, but no matter what, the diesels are coming, says Schaeffer, because the driving habits of fuel-conscious consumers are as different as the cars they drive.
“This is not a one-size fits all market anymore,” he says.
SOURCE: Jacqueline Mitchell@FORBES
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — More than three out of four auto executives expect more bankruptcies in their industry, according to an annual survey by audit and accounting firm KPMG LLP.
